After extensive analysis of pack odds, expected returns, and value during key promotional events, my verdict is clear: Rare gold packs are absolutely worth purchasing in FIFA 23 Ultimate Team. The exciting potential of packing high-end meta cards combined with the likelihood of solid profit margins makes rare gold packs a smart investment for your coins and FIFA Points.
Rare Gold Packs Defined – What You Need to Know
Before we dive into the value breakdown, let‘s quickly define what exactly rare gold packs are and what makes them unique:
12 Rare Gold Players – Every item will be a rare gold player rated 75-99. No consumables or other filler.
50,000 Coins – Fairly expensive at 50k, but cheaper during Lightning Rounds.
300 FIFA Points – Approximately $2.50 if buying FIFA Points through microtransactions.
Premium Odds – Positioned by EA as a premium product with substantially better odds than standard gold packs.
Limited Time Promotional Offerings – Rare gold packs are rarely available all the time. Usually reserved for Lightning Rounds or special events.
The guaranteed rare gold players is what makes this pack type elite. Let‘s analyze the value in detail.
Expected Pack Weight by Player Rating
Based on observed pack openings, here are the estimated odds of packing cards by tier in a rare gold pack:
| Rating | Percentage Odds |
|---|---|
| 90+ | 1% |
| 85-89 | 4% |
| 80-84 | 30% |
| 75-79 | 65% |
With 12 rare gold player items, this translates to:
| Rating | Expected Number of Cards |
|---|---|
| 90+ | 0-1 |
| 85-89 | 0-1 |
| 80-84 | 3-4 |
| 75-79 | 7-8 |
Already you can start to see the tremendous potential in these packs. While the odds of Messi or Ronaldo are still under 1%, packing a high end meta card is very achievable.
Now let‘s look at expected coin returns…
Quick Sell Value Shows Moderate Profit Potential
If every packed card was quick sold at its discard value, here is the math on expected return per rare gold pack:
| Rating | QS Value | Expected # | Total Expected |
|---|---|---|---|
| 90+ | 150,000 | 0-1 | 0-150,000 |
| 85-89 | 25,000 | 0-1 | 0-25,000 |
| 80-84 | 5,000 | 3-4 | 15,000-20,000 |
| 75-79 | 2,000 | 7-8 | 14,000-16,000 |
| Total | ~75,000 |
With a rare gold pack costing 50,000 coins, quick selling the contents results in 50% profit on average.
Decent returns for simply discarding everything packed! This confirms that based on quick sell value alone, rare gold packs are profitable investments.
Sale Value of Packed Cards Further Boosts Profit Potential to Over 150%
Of course, smart FUT traders will sell any valuable cards on the transfer market rather than quick sell. Here is what the estimated return per pack looks like when factoring in average sale pricing:
| Rating | Sale Price | Expected # | Total Expected |
|---|---|---|---|
| 90+ | 500,000 | 0-1 | 0-500,000 |
| 85-89 | 75,000 | 0-1 | 0-75,000 |
| 80-84 | 15,000 | 3-4 | 45,000-60,000 |
| 75-79 | 5,000 | 7-8 | 35,000-40,000 |
| Total | ~125,000 |
Subtracting the 50,000 coin pack cost gives us up to 150% profit per rare gold pack!
The profit upside here is massive when you sell off all contents, especially high rated cards during peak market pricing.
When to Buy Rare Gold Packs – Timing is Everything
As a premium FUT pack offering, the rare gold pack is not available at all times. EA strategically releases rare gold packs during Lightning Rounds and promotional events to create excitement and spike engagement.
Here are the best times I suggest targeting your rare gold pack purchases:
Lightning Rounds
Hands down, Lightning Rounds are the prime rare gold pack buying opportunity. These are limited time releases, usually 1 hour windows, where tons of rare gold packs flood the FUT Store.
The short supply temporarily crashes the market, allowing you to grab 50k or 100k rare gold packs for huge discounts. I‘ve seen them as low as 25,000 coins at the peak of Lightning Rounds!
Follow EA Sports FIFA on Twitter and turn on notifications so you never miss a Lightning Round drop. This is where legends are made in pack openings.
Promotional Events
When hot new content drops like Team of the Week, Road to the Final, or Signature Signings, rare gold packs become the best conduit for chasing those rare promo cards.
Each promo team is only found in packs for a limited window, usually 5-7 days. Limit your rare gold purchases to these peak promotional periods for the best odds at monster pulls.
Surplus Coin Balance
If you‘ve been grinding SBCs and rewards and have a large coin surplus, feel free to add some rare gold packs into the mix. Just be sure it‘s truly above and beyond what you‘re saving up for.
Having 500k extra is a great sign you can spare some on packs without digging into savings. Avoid temptation to overspend when low on coins.
Major Calendar Events
Key points on the FUT calendar like Black Friday, FUTmas, Lunar New Year, and FUT Birthday will bring juiced up rare gold packs.
Look out for extra promo cards, improved odds, freebie player picks, or bonus packs attached to rare gold pack offerings. Capitalize on these seasonal opportunities!
Avoid During Non-Promo Stretches
When there‘s not a hot new team in packs, I advise against rare gold packs. The odds of packing an exciting new card are too low.
Of course, if you just enjoy the base game content and thrill of opening regardless, feel free to buy during these down periods. But strictly for maximizing profit, only buy packs with active promos.
Advanced Strategies to Further Maximize Profits
Beyond timing your rare gold pack purchases well, there are some next level strategies you can employ to extract even more value:
Quick Flips During Lightning Rounds
A smart move during Lightning Rounds is to grab discounted rare gold packs then immediately list any big pulls on the transfer market for quick flips.
New supply has crashed the market, so while prices are depressed you list slightly below the new low rate. Impatient buyers will snap them up for a solid 5-15% margin you pocket.
Rinse Duplicate Untradeables Through Upgrade SBCs
When you eventually pack untradeable duplicates, avoid quick selling! Rinse them through the various Upgrade SBCs which return tradable rare gold packs.
This recycles your untradeables back into more coins while costing you nothing but some squad filler cards. The 81+ and 82+ Upgrades are best for rare cards.
Sell Promo Cards During Initial Hype Window
After packing a sick new promo card, resist the urge to throw them immediately in your squad. Instead, sell during the first few hours or days of a promo while excitement is peaking.
Popular promo cards routinely sell for 25% above their long-term price during the initial hype window. Take advantage!
Track Your Pack Histories in a Spreadsheet
Make a pack opening spreadsheet to track details like packs opened, coin spent, cards packed, sale profits, etc. This lets you analyze your true pack odds.
If your observed pack weight differs from community averages, adjust your strategies accordingly. Data-driven decisions maximize profits!
Should You Save For Mbappe or Try Packing Him? The Debate.
An interesting player-specific case study for rare gold packs is Kylian Mbappe. His TOTW card is the most sought after in FIFA 23, currently selling for 1.5 million coins.
Many FIFA players face the choice – try repeatedly packing Mbappe through rare gold packs, or play it safe buying him outright after saving up 1.5M coins? Let‘s debate!
The Case for Buying Mbappe After Saving:
- Guaranteed to get him immediately by purchasing on transfer market
- No risk of wasting coins on pack openings with no Mbappe
- Lets you play with Mbappe right away rather than waiting to pack
- Pack weight odds of Mbappe are minuscule
The Case for Trying to Pack Mbappe:
- Hitting him in a pack provides massive excitement and bragging rights
- Given enough attempts, you could pack him for free by luck
- Pack openings are more fun and engaging than grinding coins through matches
- If you don‘t pack him, you will accrue other cards to offset cost
- Can buy him later as a last resort if pack luck falls short
Personally, I fall on the side of taking the risky but thrilling shot at packing Mbappe through rare gold packs. The feeling of seeing France / LW / Mbappe walkout from one of those beautiful black pack animations is a FUT dream come true!
But I absolutely respect playing it safe, getting your Mbappe guaranteed, and avoiding potential wasted expenditure from failed pack openings.
There‘s merit to both approaches – go with your gut!
My Verdict – Rare Gold Packs Are a Must Buy in FIFA 23
Rare gold packs occupy a unique space in FUT as one of the only avenues to grab those stellar 90+ rated meta cards that propel your club into the elite tier. Between the thrill of the lightning rounds and success stories of off the couch pack reactions going viral, rare gold packs capture the passion of FUT.
The numbers also back up that with some pack opening savvy and smart market trading, rare gold packs provide profitable returns on investment. I‘ve personally realized both fun and financial value from judiciously incorporating rare gold packs into my broader FIFA 23 experience.
If you have yet to dip your toes into the rare gold pack waters, I couldn‘t recommend enough taking the plunge when those stunning black pack animations make their ephemeral return to the FUT store. Let me know who you end up packing!
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